I just want to say I think it's ridiculous for people to be announcing their candidacies for elections that are over three years away. But with Mark Udall announcing today that he is foregoing the 2006 governor's race in favor of a run for Wayne Allard's Senate seat in 2008, we have a pretty good idea already of who the ultimate candidates will be -- even if, as Udall may expect, Allard decides not to run for a third term.
That's because we've got a lame duck governor who is widely believed to want "national office," but doesn't really seem like presidential material now that he has presided over one of the worst election cycles the Republican Party has experienced in Colorado in a long time. A senate seat would not be beneath Bill Owens, and I think he will still have the clout to clear the GOP field in 2008.
There are a couple of ways to look at an Owens-Udall matchup. If you want to look at it in terms of positioning on a political spectrum, Owens has already shown he can pose like a moderate while acting like a right winger. Udall is pretty acceptable to the liberal Democratic base (if anyone has a reason why this shouldn't be so, please speak up) and I am sure the media will be falling over themselves to say he needs to "move to the center." If you look at things this way, Owens might have an edge (at least in perception) but he may have to be more out of the closet about his right wing ways to placate 'wingers who are still pissed off about his pulling the rug out from Bob Schaffer in the GOP senate primary last year and who are uncomfortable with Owens' family situation.
Or, if you want to take the Western Democrat view of things -- which candidate is more comfortable in jeans and boots -- Udall has the clear edge. He is a real inland Westerner, not a transplanted Texan, and although he lives in Eldorado Springs at the edge of the metro area, he has a much better grasp of rural Colorado and its issues than the hopelessly suburban Owens.
It could come down to a question of who the swing voters are. Owens got elected the first time by going hard for the southeastern Denver suburbs in a battle royal with Douglas County's Gail Schoettler that sometimes seemed to have been fought entirely between Belleview Avenue and Castle Rock. (He then rewarded that area with extra highway lanes and light rail.) Last year, the Salazar brothers (or Ken at least) won with a different strategy -- treating the suburbs as just as polarized as Denver, Boulder and the Springs and going for the rural vote as the swing vote.
I think people who view Udall as just the guy who represents Boulder are making a big mistake. Boulder just isn't that big of a city, and for Udall to win so comfortably he has had to campaign hard in the mountain parts of his district. Granted, that includes a lot of the ski country that is more Democratic than, say, Montrose, but he is getting lots of hands on experience with rural issues to go with that comfortable, jeans wearing mountain man image he's got working. And "comfortable" is a word I would never use to describe Bill Owens.
It could be an interesting race -- in three freaking years. Of course, a lot could happen between now and then.